DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS Seminar

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Strange attractors in a seasonally forced epidemic SIR model


João Carvalho
(Universidade do Porto)

Abstract: We analyse the forced SIR model to investigate the influence of seasonality on the disease dynamics. Seasonality is often introduced in epidemic models via a transmission rate of sinusoidal type. In this talk, we present two results related to this model: (i) the condition on the basic reproduction number R0 < 1 is not enough to guarantee the elimination of the disease; (ii) for R0 < 1, using the theory of Rank-one attractors developed by Wang and Young, the flow exhibits persistent strange attractors. Although numerical experiments have already suggested that periodically-forced SIR model may exhibit chaos, a rigorous proof (without computer-aided) was not given before. Our results are consistent with the empirical belief that intense seasonality induces chaos. Joint work with Alexandre A. Rodrigues (University of Porto).

Wednesday, April 20, 2022
Time: 14h00
Room: Sala Delta, Edificio Quelhas, ISEG
http://cemapre.iseg.ulisboa.pt/seminars/dynsys/