Friday, April 15, 2016

Bayesian selection of supply-use technology assumptions

João Rodrigues
(Institute of Environmental Sciences CML, Leiden University)

Abstract: In the construction of a symmetric input-output table from supply-use tables it is necessary to invoke a technology assumption to disambiguate how an industry uses a given input in the production recipe of multiple outputs. We begin this talk by presenting a formulation which allows for the systematic exploration of technology assumptions, with a focus on hybrids between the commodity and industry technology assumptions. We then present a Bayesian method that describes how the practitioner's belief in a particular assumption evolves when confronted with empirical observations, when the state space of assumptions is either finite or continuous. We present preliminary results using Eurostat data and discuss the problem of how to handle empirical observations for which all assumptions perform poorly.

Friday, April 15, 2016
Time: 11h00
Room: Sala Delta, Edificio Quelhas, ISEG