RESEARCH SEMINARS SERIES IN MATHEMATICS APPLIED TO ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT Seminar

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Deep extremal regression: Grey box models for univariate and multivariate extremes


Jordan Richards
(University of Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom)

Abstract: Despite some negative press, deep neural networks are a useful tool for statistical risk modelling. We present deep extremal regression models - neural networks designed to target descriptions of the conditional tails, such as extreme quantiles or tail indices. By combining deep neural networks with asymptotically-justified models from extreme value theory, we create grey box models which permit high-dimensional inference on extremes while retaining some of the interpretability of traditional statistical models. This talk covers a few examples of deep extremal regression models, which we use for extreme quantile regression, full (semi-parametric) conditional density estimation, and modelling of multivariate extremes via an angular-radial approach. Real data applications include US and Mediterranean wildfire extremes, and UK Metocean storms.

Thursday, May 21, 2026
Time: 11h00
Room: Anfiteatro 1, Edificio Quelhas, ISEG
http://cemapre.iseg.ulisboa.pt/seminars/cemapre-MAEM/